Recent developments in the aviation industry have confirmed what I have long suspected: hydrogenโs role in decarbonizing aviation is far more limited than once hoped. While hydrogen holds promise for ground support services and select niche applications, its viability for mainstream commercial aviation remains elusive.
Airbusโs decision to pause its Zeroe project and Boeingโs continued skepticism highlight the immense challenges associated with storing liquid hydrogen at -250ยฐC, integrating cryogenic tanks into aircraft designs, and scaling up green hydrogen production. And a battery powered A380? A complete non starter fr the same reason that heavy ground transport will never use batteries.
The European aviation sectorโs revised net-zero roadmap reflects this reality, reducing hydrogenโs projected contribution to CO2 reduction from 20% to just 6%. SAF now plays a central role, although its production faces cost and scalability challenges. Green hydrogen produced at $2/kgโachieved through large-scale electrolysis powered by solar or offshore wind farms in Africa and other locations with cheap land, sun and wind โcould reduce SAF production costs, particularly for Power-to-Liquid (PtL) methods, making synthetic SAF more affordable and competitive with HEFA, the current dominant method.
Affordable green hydrogen could help bring SAF costs closer to parity with conventional jet fuel, especially as carbon pricing mechanisms evolve. While infrastructure development and feedstock competition remain challenges, advancements in electrolyzer and renewable energy technologies may further improve SAF economics.
While hydrogen may have a future in synthetic SAF production and regional flights, it is unlikely to become the primary fuel for long-haul travel within the next few decades. Aviationโs path to net zero will require a diversified approach, with hydrogen playing a supporting role in lowering SAF costs and advancing sustainable aviation.
