The nanotech market size is spiralling out of control faster than the US budget deficit, now reaching a giddy 2.6 trillion. Is this where the going gets weird and the financial hype collides with the nanobot crazed loons from the fringes of nanotechnology united in a common aim to get someone to take notice of nanotechnology?
Matthew Nordon of Lux has assured us that the new market numbers are a solid piece of work, and we have no reason to disagree. We are naturally cautious, Robert Freitas has provided similar assurances about his work on nanomedicine, and if sheer hard work and earnestness were important wed give an award to Chris Phoenix and Mike Treder at CRN. What many of these efforts have in common is that they are a quite spectacular waste of time and effort. Calculating how many diamondoid flying nanobots can be safely ingested or the size of the nanotechnology market is becoming the modern equivalent of debating how many angels can dance a jig on the head of a pin an interesting way of passing a few hours stuck in an airport lounge perhaps, but of little relevance to the real world, unless you buy the idea that there is a nanotech industry to size. After 5 years of hype weve seem little evidence of such a mythical beast emerging from the primordial swamp of nanoscience research, and the industry seems set to join the ranks of other fabled beasts such as the Loch Ness Monster and Yeti.
But wait, it sounds as if someone has listened to our voice crying in the wilderness of hype and misconception – “the report refutes the popular misconception that nanotechnology is an industry or a sector it isnt. Instead, nanotechnology is a set of tools and processes for manipulating matter that can be applied to virtually any manufactured good. Rather than envisioning a mythical nanotechnology market, Lux Research recommends that executives focus on how nanotechnology is being exploited across industry value chains, from basic materials to intermediate products to final goods.”
Wow, that makes two of us. Come on in, the water is lovely.
In every case, the bottom line really is the bottom line. Weve never met a client who wants to know anything other than how big is the market for MY stuff? and weve never met anyone selling nanotechnology or internet. While big numbers may get the attention of the press, they are are of little relevance to the real movers and shakers in the nanotech world, those applying nanotechnology to produce real goods and services, most of whom would never consider themselves ‘nanotech’ companies.
Let’s hope that this report goes some of the way to redressing the mindless hype purveyed by many, including Lux in the past.