Startups that promised revolution mostly delivered cap tables — Arrival (admin 2024 → shut down Mar 2025), Volta Trucks (insolvency, again, 2025), Tevva (assets auctioned 2024). In the US: Electric Last Mile Solutions (liquidated 2022), Lordstown (bankruptcy 2023). Not outliers — a pattern.
Meanwhile the “too slow” incumbents are doing the boring, valuable work. Mercedes-Benz’s eActros 600 is landing on UK roads in serious numbers; Amazon has 200 on order across Germany and the UK — proper middle-mile duty, not photo ops. MAN has eTruck production running in Munich. That’s what progress looks like in heavy vehicles: production lines, service networks, parts on shelves, fleets taking deliveries.
Why the majors are winning
- Uptime beats prototypes.
- Bankable TCO and residuals beat vibes.
- Infrastructure matters — OEM-backed build-outs like Milence (Daimler–Volvo–Traton) are laying the charging backbone.
Great demo ≠ great fleet. As I wrote in Born to Disrupt: success = timing + grit + chaos. We’ve had the chaos. Now it’s uptime and unit economics.
If you’re planning 2026–2030 capex
Stop waiting for a miracle van that never ships. Start negotiating TCO with the manufacturers delivering tractors today — and treat charging as a first-class workstream (grid, hardware, uptime SLAs, residuals), not an afterthought.
Next moves
- Shortlist platforms you can take delivery of now.
- Run duty-cycle pilots that stress the platform, not the PR team.
- Lock vehicle orders and charging plans together.
