European Hydrogen Truck Manufacturers: The Comprehensive 2025 Guide to FCEV, H2ICE & Deployments
Updated 28 October 2025
Executive Summary
Heavy-duty hydrogen trucks are moving from prototype to mainstream deployment across Europe. Daimler Truck, Volvo Group, IVECO, MAN, Scania, Hyundai, Renault Trucks, and specialist integrators like CMB.TECH are scaling up both fuel-cell electric vehicles (FCEV) and hydrogen internal combustion engines (H2ICE) for long-haul, urban, and vocational logistics. Major EU-funded programmes—H2Accelerate TRUCKS, H2Haul, HyTrucks, and Clean Hydrogen Alliance—are coordinating vehicle deployments with AFIR (Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation) infrastructure rollouts. This comprehensive guide examines all major OEM pathways, real-world deployment data, technical specifications, economics, and the European hydrogen truck market through 2030.
Key Takeaways
- Market acceleration: Over 225,000 km of real-world FCEV trials completed by Daimler alone (Sept 2025); multiple OEMs ramping production 2025–2027.
- Two complementary pathways: FCEV platforms (Daimler GenH2, Volvo, IVECO, Hyundai XCIENT, Renault/HYVIA) target long-haul, zero-tailpipe corridors; H2ICE platforms (MAN hTGX) and dual-fuel conversions (CMB.TECH) serve vocational, retrofit, and rapid-deployment segments.
- Technical convergence: FCEV ranges now 600–1,000 km with 10–15 min refuelling; H2ICE/dual-fuel 500–650 km with depot flexibility; all Euro 7 and AFIR compliant by 2025–2026.
- Infrastructure scaling: AFIR mandates 400+ stations by 2031; Germany–Benelux–France corridors operational in 2025; private depot refuelling expanding rapidly.
- OEM commitments: Daimler (GenH2), Volvo (hydrogen FCEV), IVECO (S-eWay FCEVs in production), MAN (hTGX H2ICE small series 2025), Hyundai (XCIENT expansion Europe), Renault/HYVIA (2025–2026 pilot scale-up).
- Fleet operator response: Strong adoption signals from DHL, Coca-Cola, Rewe, Supermarkets, BMW, logistics operators; pilot units reporting 95%+ uptime and familiar maintenance.
- Market outlook: 100+ hydrogen trucks in routine service by end 2025; 500+ by 2027; several thousand by 2030 across FCEV, H2ICE, and dual-fuel segments.
1. European Hydrogen Truck Market Landscape: 2025 Status
The European hydrogen truck sector is at an inflection point. Large-scale pilot programs and early commercial deployments are replacing laboratory-only validation. Daimler’s GenH2 trucks completed over 225,000 km in real-world customer operations by September 2025, including Arctic winter trials and Alpine mountain routes. Volvo Trucks announced hydrogen FCEV production roadmap aligned with H2Accelerate TRUCKS; IVECO delivered S-eWay fuel-cell trucks to BMW logistics operations in 2025; and Daimler has been testing hydrogen trucks on Alpine routes, proving cold-weather and altitude performance.
Concurrently, H2ICE combustion platforms and dual-fuel conversions are accelerating retrofit pathways for fleets seeking rapid decarbonisation. MAN hTGX small-series rollout (200 units) begins 2025 targeting construction and vocational segments. CMB.TECH dual-fuel conversions scale across European Ford and Toyota truck fleets. This parallel strategy—FCEV for structured long-haul corridors, H2ICE/dual-fuel for flexibility—maximises market penetration and addresses diverse operator needs.
2. European OEM Hydrogen Truck Profiles: Technology & Deployment
2.1 Daimler Truck: GenH2 FCEV Platform
Status & Achievements:
Daimler’s Mercedes-Benz GenH2 is the most-tested hydrogen truck globally, with customer trial fleets operating across Europe. As of September 2025, the platform has logged over 225,000 km in real-world operations, including pilot routes in Germany, France, Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland, Austria, and Nordic countries. Trials span supermarket delivery, chemical logistics, manufacturing supply chain, and intercity freight.
Technical Specifications:
- Fuel system: Dual 350 bar cryogenic liquid hydrogen (LH₂) tanks (~80 kg total capacity)
- Fuel cell power: Dual 150 kW PEM stacks (300 kW combined system power)
- Range: >1,000 km per fill in optimal conditions; ~850–900 km typical European long-haul
- Refuelling time: 10–15 minutes for full tank
- Gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR): 40 tonnes; payload capacity ~26 tonnes (comparable to diesel equivalent)
- Emissions: Zero CO₂ tailpipe; zero NOx; water vapour only
- Thermal management: Waste heat recovery from fuel cell optimised for European heating cycles
Deployment & Market Plans:
- 2025: 20+ pre-series units in customer operations; focus on tier-1 logistics (DHL, Rewe supermarket distribution, chemical carriers).
- 2026–2027: Ramp to 50–100 units annually; establish baseline production supply chain with fuel cell suppliers (Ballard, Hydrogenics, and cellcentric NextGen stacks).
- 2030 target: 500–1,000 units/year as H2Accelerate scales and AFIR corridor refuelling becomes ubiquitous.
H2Accelerate Participation: Daimler is a core partner in H2Accelerate TRUCKS, coordinating with Volvo, IVECO, Shell, Air Liquide, and Linde on Pan-European hydrogen fuel supply, refuelling standardisation, and fleet operator integration.
2.2 Volvo Group: Hydrogen FCEV & Strategic Partnerships
Status & Roadmap:
Volvo Trucks announced production plans for hydrogen-powered trucks targeting 2026–2027 commercial launch. Volvo’s approach emphasizes parallel development of battery-electric and hydrogen FCEV platforms, providing customers choice aligned with their duty cycle. Volvo has been trialling hydrogen trucks powered by hydrogen derived from vegetable-based feedstocks, demonstrating alignment with circular economy principles and biogenic hydrogen pathways.
Technical Platform:
- Fuel system: Dual 350/700 bar tank configurations under evaluation; focus on 44-tonne European truck standard
- Fuel cell stack: Multi-stack PEM architecture for modular power; supplier partnerships with leading fuel cell manufacturers
- Range: Target 600–1,000 km; optimized for European long-haul duty cycles
- Integration: Building on proven Volvo chassis, driveline, and cab architecture; minimal redesign except for fuel system and fuel cell compartment
- Safety & standardisation: Full Euro 7/AFIR compliance by launch; extensive cold-climate testing in Sweden, Norway, Finland
Deployment Timeline:
- 2024–2025: Advanced pilot trials (food logistics, Nordic routes, biogenic hydrogen feedstocks).
- 2026–2027: Pre-production fleet ramp; expected 30–50 units in customer hands.
- 2028+: Scale-up to 100+ units/year as supply chain stabilizes.
2.3 IVECO: S-eWay Fuel-Cell Production & Real Deployments
Status & Market Position:
IVECO delivered S-eWay fuel-cell trucks to BMW Logistics in 2025, with ongoing deployment in European logistics operations. IVECO is active in both H2Accelerate TRUCKS and H2Haul consortiums, making it a key player in multi-national hydrogen corridor development. IVECO has deployed hydrogen trucks powered by Bosch fuel cell systems at manufacturing plants like Nuremberg, proving industrial on-site hydrogen utilization.
Technical Specifications (S-eWay FCEV):
- Fuel system: 350 bar gaseous hydrogen (~60 kg capacity) or cryogenic dual-tank LH₂ (~80 kg)
- Fuel cell: PEM stack options from Bosch/Proton Motor or other European suppliers
- Range: 800–1,000 km per fill (dual-tank LH₂ configuration)
- Refuelling: 10–15 minutes; compatible with both 350 bar and 700 bar infrastructure
- Payload: ~26 tonnes (40t GVWR); thermal efficiency optimised for European climate zones
- Emissions: Zero CO₂ tailpipe; meets early Euro 7 NOx/PM targets
Fleet Deployments:
- BMW Logistics (2025): Multiple S-eWay FCEVs in Munich-based supply chain operations.
- Swiss supermarket chain COOP operating IVECO S-eWay FCEVs for Zurich-region deliveries (2025).
- Europe-wide pilots planned 2026; production ramp to 50–100 units/year by 2027–2028.
2.4 Hyundai Motor: XCIENT Fuel Cell – Asian Leader in European Market
Strategic Positioning:
Hyundai unveiled the new XCIENT fuel cell truck at ACT Expo 2025, reinforcing its role as a major non-European FCEV supplier to European fleets. Hyundai is winning the 2025 FCEV race with aggressive European market expansion and specialized vehicle configurations. Hyundai has launched hydrogen-powered refuse collection and hook-lift trucks, diversifying beyond long-haul to vocational and municipal sectors.
XCIENT Specifications:
- Fuel cell power: 150–200 kW PEM stack; proven reliability across 50,000+ km per unit
- Fuel tank: 52.2 kg hydrogen (700 bar); 63 kg (cryogenic LH₂ on select models)
- Range: 600–800 km per fill (varies by duty cycle, auxiliary loads)
- Refuelling: 8–10 minutes at 700 bar station
- GVWR: 40–50 tonnes options; payload 26–32 tonnes
- Emissions: Zero CO₂; <0.01 g NOx/km (well below Euro 7 targets)
- Cold climate performance: Validated down to -20°C; Arctic circulation trials completed
European Deployment & Market Penetration:
- XCIENT in service across Germany, France, Benelux, Scandinavia, UK; 100+ units on European roads by mid-2025.
- Fleet operators: Specialist logistics (food, pharma), municipal waste, supermarket distribution.
- Hyundai targeting rapid expansion of XCIENT deployment on German roads and pan-European corridors.
- Production ramp: 200+ units planned 2025–2026; scaling to 500+ annually by 2028.
2.5 Renault Trucks & HYVIA: European Hydrogen Truck Program
Partnership & Platform:
Renault launched the HYVIA hydrogen truck concept at IAA Transportation Hanover 2024, positioning hydrogen as a core decarbonisation pathway. HYVIA is a joint venture between Renault and Plug Power, combining European truck manufacturing with North American fuel cell expertise. Renault Master H2-Tech prototype sets the new standard for light commercial hydrogen vehicles, expanding hydrogen portfolio beyond heavy-duty.
Heavy-Duty Hydrogen Truck Specifications (HYVIA H2 Truck):
- Fuel cell system: Plug Power ProGen series PEM stacks; 150+ kW output
- Fuel storage: 350/700 bar tank options; ~60–80 kg hydrogen
- Range: 700–900 km per fill; optimized for European duty cycles
- Refuelling: 10–15 minutes; AFIR-compatible stations
- Chassis: Built on proven Renault Truck platform (T, C, K series derivative)
- Emissions: Zero CO₂ tailpipe; Euro 7 compliant
Development & Market Timeline:
- 2024: HYVIA concept and partnership announced; pilot trials with logistics operators begin.
- 2025: Pre-series units in pilot fleets; focus on France, Germany, Benelux corridors.
- 2026–2027: Ramp to small production batch (30–50 units); scale-up contingent on AFIR infrastructure progress.
2.6 MAN Truck & Bus: H2ICE Combustion Platform (hTGX)
Strategic Positioning:
MAN is the leading European advocate for hydrogen internal combustion engine (H2ICE) platforms in heavy-duty trucks. MAN hTGX targets rapid deployment in vocational and high-utilization segments where retrofit compatibility and familiar maintenance are competitive advantages. Small-series rollout begins 2025 with 200 units targeting construction, tanker, timber, and special transport operators.
MAN hTGX H2ICE Specifications:
- Engine: Modified diesel platform, spark-ignition hydrogen combustion, ~280–300 kW output
- Fuel system: 350 bar gaseous hydrogen; dual tanks, ~40 kg capacity
- Range: 500–650 km per fill; compatible with depot refuelling for vocational duty
- Refuelling: 10–12 minutes; designed for mobile bowser and fixed-site supply
- Emissions: <0.02 g NOx/kWh (98% reduction vs diesel); zero CO₂ with green hydrogen
- Maintenance: Leverages existing diesel ICE service infrastructure; oil changes ~250–400 hours; standard SCR/aftertreatment
- GVWR: 44–50 tonnes options; payload comparable to diesel baseline
Deployment & Market Strategy:
- 2025: First 200 units delivered to construction contractors, tanker operators, special-purpose fleets across Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Benelux.
- Targets high-utilization operations (8–16 hr/day) where TCO breakeven is fastest; depot refuelling standard.
- Plans to scale to 500+ units/year by 2028 if hydrogen supply and AFIR progress on track.
- Retrofit-friendly design enables conversion of existing TGX platforms, accelerating fleet transition.
2.7 Scania: HyTrucks Partnership (Cummins Fuel Cells)
Collaborative Approach:
Scania is partnering with Cummins Inc. and regional logistics operators under the HyTrucks initiative to deploy fuel-cell trucks across Benelux and German/French corridors. Scania/Cummins HyTrucks leverages Cummins ProPEM fuel cell stacks in Scania’s truck platform, combining proven European chassis with established North American fuel cell technology.
Platform Specifications:
- Fuel cell: Cummins PEM stack; 150+ kW output
- Fuel storage: 700 bar gaseous hydrogen (~60 kg)
- Range: 800 km per fill; optimized for regional European routes
- Refuelling: 10–12 minutes; full integration with AFIR corridors
- Payload: 26–28 tonnes (40t GVW); competitive with diesel baseline
- Maintenance: Familiar Scania service network with hydrogen-specific training modules
Deployment:
- Pilot fleets in Netherlands, Belgium, Germany active mid-2025; regional logistics operators (food, parcel delivery).
- Target: 30+ HyTrucks units in operation by end 2025; scale to 100+ by 2027.
2.8 CMB.TECH: Dual-Fuel Hydrogen Conversions (Ford F-Max, Toyota)
Retrofit Strategy:
CMB.TECH specialises in dual-fuel hydrogen conversions of existing diesel trucks, enabling rapid fleet decarbonisation without new vehicle purchases. CMB.TECH hydrogen truck conversion systems run new trucks on 80% hydrogen blend plus 20% diesel pilot, achieving substantial CO₂ reduction (~500 km hydrogen range + 3,000 km diesel backup). Conversion facility in Antwerp, Belgium scales retrofits for major European fleet operators.
Dual-Fuel System Specifications:
- Fuel system: 350 bar hydrogen tank (~30 kg) + standard diesel tank (100–150 L), dual injectors and fuel routing
- Engine modification: Minimal hardware change; primarily fuel system, injectors, control software reprogramming
- Performance: Up to 80% H₂ blend (by energy content); switches to diesel if H₂ unavailable or low temperature
- Range: ~500 km hydrogen-only; ~3,000 km on diesel; total flexibility ~3,500 km per refuelling event
- Emissions: 70–80% CO₂ reduction vs diesel; NOx and PM reduced proportionally
- Conversion cost: €40–60k per vehicle; payback 3–5 years in high-utilization fleets
OEM Partnerships & Deployment:
- Ford Otosan: CMB.TECH converts Ford Trucks F-Max; conversions begin 2025 for Turkish and European operators.
- Toyota: Dual-fuel conversion kits for Proace Max; European commercial vehicles under development.
- Target: 100–200 dual-fuel conversions per year 2025–2028; scaling to 500+ annually by 2030.
- Fleet operators: Urban delivery, regional logistics, construction, municipal services.
3. Comparative Technology Analysis: FCEV vs H2ICE vs Dual-Fuel
| Specification | FCEV (GenH2, S-eWay, XCIENT) | H2ICE (MAN hTGX) | Dual-Fuel (CMB.TECH) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Well-to-Wheel Efficiency | 40–60% | 40–50% (HPDI); 35–40% (spark-ignition) | 20–30% (diesel offset) |
| Hydrogen-Only Range | 600–1,000 km | 500–650 km | ~500 km |
| Total Range (w/ backup) | N/A (hydrogen only) | N/A (hydrogen only) | 3,000–3,500 km (diesel backup) |
| Refuelling Time | 10–15 min (hydrogen) | 10–12 min (hydrogen) | 10 min H₂ + 5 min diesel |
| Tailpipe CO₂ (green H₂) | 0 g/km | 0 g/km | 20–30% of diesel |
| Tailpipe NOx/PM | 0 g/km | <0.02 g NOx/kWh; negligible PM | 30–50% of diesel |
| Technology Maturity | High (proven platforms 225k+ km trials) | Medium (early production 2025) | High (retrofit-based ICE) |
| Maintenance Complexity | Fuel cell stack; hydrogen valving; BOP | Standard ICE service + hydrogen kit | Dual-fuel system; standard ICE service |
| Capital Cost (EUR) | €300–450k | €200–280k | €40–60k retrofit |
| Operating Cost (EUR/km) | €0.45–0.65 | €0.35–0.50 | €0.30–0.40 (H₂ blend) |
| Best Fit Application | Long-haul, zero-emission zones, high-volume routes | Vocational, rapid deployment, depot refuelling | Fleet transition, range anxiety mitigation, mixed duty |
| Deployment Timeline | 2025–2027 commercial ramp | 2025–2028 scaling | 2025–2030 rapid adoption |
4. Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure & AFIR Targets
4.1 AFIR (Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation) Mandate
The EU’s Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation (AFIR) mandates deployment of hydrogen refuelling infrastructure on major European transport corridors. Key targets:
- 2030 baseline: 400+ public hydrogen stations on TEN-T (Trans-European Transport Network) corridors; 200 km max spacing between stations on major routes.
- Station specifications: AFIR-compliant stations support both 350 bar and 700 bar refuelling; capacity 400+ kg/day per dispenser.
- Funding: €700M+ EU co-financing; member-state matching funds mobilizing total €1.5B+ investment 2025–2030.
- Regional priorities: Germany (Rhine-Main axis), France (Paris–Lille–Lyon), Benelux (Port of Rotterdam to Germany), Scandinavia (Stockholm–Copenhagen), Central Europe (Austria, Czech Republic).
4.2 Corridor Status & Station Availability (2025)
As of October 2025, the following hydrogen refuelling corridors are operational or in early pilot phase:
- Germany–Benelux–France axis: ~80 public stations operational (Germany primary; Benelux 15–20; France 12–15); rapid expansion 2025–2026 target 150+ by 2027.
- Scandinavia (Sweden–Denmark–Norway): ~25 public stations; dense urban/port networks; rural gaps closing 2025–2026.
- UK (limited): 5–8 public stations (London, Reading, Heathrow, others); expansion lagging EU due to policy uncertainty, but private port/logistics initiatives growing.
- Switzerland–Austria–Italy: Alpine corridor pilots; 10–15 stations by end 2025.
Real-time station availability and specifications: H2.LIVE hydrogen station map and European Alternative Fuels Observatory.
4.3 Private On-Site & Fleet Depot Refuelling
Complementing public AFIR corridors, fleet operators and logistics hubs are deploying private hydrogen production and storage:
- Electrolyzer-based production: 50–500 kg/day PEM or alkaline electrolyzers at major distribution centers, manufacturing plants, ports.
- Steam methane reforming (SMR): Smaller 10–100 kg/day units at construction sites and special fleet depots.
- Bulk liquid hydrogen delivery: Tanker truck supply from centralised production plants (Air Liquide, Linde, other suppliers) to fleet sites.
- Examples in operation: BMW logistics (Munich), Rewe supermarket distribution (Germany), DHL regional hubs, Port of Rotterdam industrial zone.
5. Real-World Deployments & Fleet Operator Adoption
5.1 H2Accelerate TRUCKS: Pan-European Corridor Program
H2Accelerate is the largest European hydrogen truck initiative, coordinating OEMs (Daimler, Volvo, IVECO), energy companies (Shell, Air Liquide, Linde), and fleet operators across 11 countries. Program targets:
- 50+ hydrogen trucks on European roads by end 2025.
- Coordinated refuelling infrastructure at 8–10 strategic hub locations (Germany–Benelux–France focus).
- Standardisation of fuel supply, safety protocols, and driver training.
- Scale to 500+ trucks by 2028; commercial viability demonstrated by 2027.
Participants: Daimler GenH2, Volvo hydrogen FCEV, IVECO S-eWay, Shell hydrogen production and retail, Air Liquide supply logistics, Linde infrastructure, plus 20+ fleet operators (logistics, supermarket distribution, chemicals).
5.2 Operational Fleet Deployments (Q4 2025)
- Daimler GenH2: 20+ units with DHL, Rewe (supermarket), chemical logistics operators in Germany, France, Austria, Switzerland.
- IVECO S-eWay FCEV: BMW Logistics (Munich), COOP supermarket (Zurich), regional distribution networks.
- Hyundai XCIENT: 100+ units across Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, Scandinavia; vocational (refuse, supermarket, pharma) and long-haul segments.
- MAN hTGX H2ICE: First units entering construction, tanker, special-transport fleets (Q4 2025); 50+ projected by end 2026.
- CMB.TECH dual-fuel conversions: 50+ units in urban delivery, regional logistics, municipal services.
Fleet operator feedback (composite from pilot reports):
- Refuelling time: 10–15 minutes matches diesel baseline; familiarity high.
- Range: Sufficient for European long-haul 500–1,000 km with appropriate planning; slight range anxiety in early stages resolving as AFIR expands.
- Uptime: 95%+ in trials; maintenance intervals comparable to diesel with hydrogen-specific service training.
- Driver acceptance: High; vehicles handle and perform like diesel equivalents; no significant driving behavior adaptation.
- Cost sensitivity: Early adopters accept 20–30% higher capital cost for environmental/regulatory compliance value; breakeven on operating cost expected 2027–2028 as hydrogen prices stabilize.
6. Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) & Market Economics
6.1 TCO Comparison: FCEV vs H2ICE vs Diesel Baseline
5-year fleet TCO for 40-tonne European long-haul truck (150,000 km/year):
| Cost Category | Diesel (Stage V) | FCEV (GenH2 equiv.) | H2ICE (MAN hTGX) | Dual-Fuel (CMB.TECH retrofit) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vehicle purchase | €150k | €350k | €220k | €50k (retrofit) |
| Financing (5yr @ 4%) | €32k | €76k | €48k | €11k |
| Fuel (750k km) | €300k (€0.40/km) | €225k (€0.30/km H₂ @ €5/kg) | €240k (€0.32/km H₂ @ €4/kg) | €210k (€0.28/km blend) |
| Maintenance | €60k | €80k (fuel cell BOP) | €65k | €60k |
| Insurance, registration | €35k | €45k | €40k | €35k |
| Total 5-year TCO | €577k | €776k | €613k | €366k |
| TCO per km | €0.77 | €1.04 | €0.82 | €0.49 |
Key insights:
- FCEV premium persists: €200k+ higher capital cost vs diesel; TCO breakeven requires hydrogen price <€3/kg and green incentives (CO₂ credits, subsidies).
- H2ICE competitive edge: H2ICE TCO ~€35k higher than diesel but offset by zero-tailpipe-emission incentives and faster deployment; breakeven plausible 2027–2028 as H₂ cost falls to €2.50–3.00/kg.
- Dual-fuel retrofit wins on TCO: Lowest 5-year cost (~€366k); rapid fleet transition option; diesel backup mitigates H₂ infrastructure risk.
- Sensitivity to hydrogen cost: Each €1/kg change in hydrogen price swing TCO ±€75k over 5 years; policy-driven H₂ pricing support (green hydrogen mandates, carbon tax) critical to viability.
7. EU Policy Support & Regulatory Drivers
7.1 Euro 7 Emissions Standard (2025–2027 Implementation)
Euro 7 regulations are moving toward technology-neutral CO₂ standards recognising zero-carbon fuels (hydrogen, e-fuels), not solely zero-tailpipe-emission mandates. This shift favours FCEV, H2ICE, and renewable fuel pathways equally. Hydrogen trucks (FCEV and H2ICE) will receive full credit under Euro 7 lifecycle CO₂ accounting.
7.2 EU CO₂ Fleet Emission Limits (HDV Regulation)
EU Heavy-Duty Vehicle (HDV) CO₂ regulation targets 55% reduction by 2030 and 90% by 2040 vs. 2019 baseline. Hydrogen trucks (FCEV and green H₂-powered H2ICE) are recognized as key pathways to meet 2030 and 2040 targets. Early adopters of hydrogen receive compliance credits.
7.3 Green Hydrogen Mandates & Production Support
EU directives increasingly mandate green (renewable) hydrogen for transport sector. Hydrogen Europe industry alliance advocates for €15–20B annual EU investment in green hydrogen production and infrastructure through 2030. Member states offering:
- Direct subsidies for green hydrogen production (electrolyzer capital grants).
- Tax incentives for hydrogen truck purchases (5–10 year depreciation accelerated).
- Carbon pricing mechanisms penalising grey hydrogen.
- Preferential procurement for public/municipal fleets using hydrogen trucks.
8. Market Outlook & Scaling Trajectory (2025–2035)
8.1 Near-Term (2025–2027)
- Deployed units: 100–200 hydrogen trucks in routine European fleet operations by end 2025; scaling to 500–800 by end 2027.
- Technology mix: FCEV dominates long-haul pilots (60–70%); H2ICE/dual-fuel rapid scaling in vocational/retrofit segments (30–40%).
- Infrastructure: 150–200 public H₂ stations operational by end 2027 (vs. 100+ today); private depot refuelling at 50+ logistics hubs.
- OEM production ramp: Daimler, Volvo, IVECO scaling to 30–50 units/year; MAN H2ICE 50–100 units/year; Hyundai XCIENT 100+ units/year in Europe.
- Cost trajectory: Hydrogen price stabilising €3.50–4.50/kg (blue H₂); green H₂ emerging at €4–6/kg; long-term contracts locking in pricing.
8.2 Medium-Term (2028–2030)
- Deployed units: 2,000–3,000 hydrogen trucks across Europe in commercial service.
- Production scaling: OEM capacity reaches 500–1,000 units/year; FCEV/H2ICE production lines established in Germany, France, Sweden.
- Infrastructure completion: 350+ AFIR-compliant stations across Europe; all TEN-T corridors support hydrogen refuelling; pan-European journey planning possible.
- Cost parity: H2ICE and dual-fuel trucks achieve TCO parity with diesel; FCEV approaching parity as hydrogen costs decline to €2.50–3.50/kg.
- Regulatory validation: Euro 7 fully implemented; hydrogen trucks recognized as compliant zero-carbon pathway; CO₂ fleet limits achievable via hydrogen + BEV mix.
8.3 Long-Term (2030–2035)
- Market saturation: 10,000+ hydrogen trucks across Europe in active service; representing 10–15% of new heavy-truck sales.
- Technology diversity: Balanced portfolio: BEV (40–50% long-haul, urban), FCEV (20–30% long-haul corridors), H2ICE (15–20% vocational/retrofit), e-fuel ICE (5–10% niche).
- Green hydrogen dominance: >80% of hydrogen from renewable electrolysis; blue hydrogen 15%; grey hydrogen <5% (phased out by regulation).
- Infrastructure maturity: 500+ public stations; dense private/depot networks at all major logistics hubs; hydrogen supply chains integrated with electricity grid.
9. Comprehensive References & Sources
- Daimler Truck GenH2 225,000 km trial completion (Sept 2025)
- Volvo Trucks hydrogen-powered truck announcement (May 2024)
- IVECO S-eWay FCEV delivery to BMW (Feb 2025)
- Hyundai XCIENT fuel cell truck ACT Expo 2025 unveiling
- Renault HYVIA hydrogen truck IAA Hanover 2024
- Daimler Alpine hydrogen truck trials (Sept 2025)
- COOP supermarket IVECO hydrogen truck trial (July 2025)
- H2Accelerate TRUCKS consortium & program details
- EU AFIR (Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation) overview
- cellcentric NextGen fuel cell systems for heavy-duty
- H2.LIVE European hydrogen station map & database
- European Alternative Fuels Observatory—infrastructure tracking
- Hydrogen Internal Combustion Engine (H2ICE) comprehensive technical guide
- ICCT Fuel-Cell HDVs in Europe study (Sept 2022)
- Driving Hydrogen blog & European hydrogen transport news
- Hydrogen Europe industry alliance & policy advocacy


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