Zero-Emission HGV TCO: Hidden Costs Battery vs Hydrogen Trucks

Tim Harper | November 2025

In the race to decarbonise UK road freight, fleet operators, policymakers, and the public alike are often drawn to headline sticker prices—usually missing the bigger operational reality. While battery electric HGVs often seem to offer a lower up-front price, their real-world performance, costs, and workforce demands tell a much more complex—and expensive—story. This analysis argues that the payload penalty, labor pressures, and infrastructure constraints are what will truly determine the winners and losers in the next logistics era when looking at the zero-emission HGV TCO.

The Payload Penalty: Why It Makes or Breaks TCO

Ignoring the difference in how much an HGV can haul is the biggest trap in battery-vs-hydrogen cost analysis. It’s not just about what you pay for the truck—it’s about how each lorry translates kWh or kg of fuel or battery into delivered payload, day after day. The Battery Electric Truck Trial (BETT) programme, Mercedes GenH2 customer trials, and European studies provide hard data on what actually happens when you swap diesel powertrains for zero-emission alternatives.

Here’s how real-world data shakes out for a UK-standard 40-tonne articulated lorry:

Why does this exist? The 2-tonne UK weight allowance for zero-emissions helps—just not enough. Even at 42 tonnes GCW, BEVs typically lose 3+ tonnes of payload compared to diesel. That means 15–25% more vehicles, drivers, and resources to do the same work compared to diesel, versus just 5–8% more needed in hydrogen fleets. No operator can ignore this when scaling their business.

Understanding the Physics: Batteries vs Hydrogen

For HGVs, every kilogram of battery or hydrogen tank comes at the expense of payload. Battery packs for trucks can weigh 2,400–4,500 kg for a 300–500 km range (with the new Volvo FH Aero Electric pushing the limits at 780 kWh/4.5 tonnes). Hydrogen systems, storing chemical energy, add only 1,000–1,200 kg for a comparable or greater range. This is simple physics—one that delivers profound operational consequences over thousands of trips per year.

The Fleet-Level Reality: More Than a Truck Price Problem

When you factor in these payload penalties across an actual logistics contract—say, moving 2,700 tonnes per week—all of the “headline savings” for BEVs are washed away by operational costs that keep compounding year on year. Let’s model a real logistics operation operating across UK distribution networks:

Diesel Baseline: The Starting Point

For a fleet of 100 diesel trucks moving 2,700 tonnes weekly, the baseline costs are well understood. This represents a typical regional distribution operation serving supermarkets, construction sites, or manufacturing supply chains:

• Fleet size: 100 trucks @ 27t payload each
• Drivers: 100
• Annual wage bill: £3.85M (at £38.5k average)
• Infrastructure: Minimal (existing diesel forecourts)

Battery Electric HGVs: The Compounding Costs

Because more BEVs are needed to move the same load due to the 19% payload penalty (540 kWh configuration), the operator faces not just higher capital expenditure but a cascade of operational costs. Every additional truck compounds the problem exponentially:

• Fleet size: 123 trucks @ 22t payload each (+23% more vehicles)
• Drivers: 123 (+23 additional drivers needed)
• Annual wage bill: £4.74M (+£890k annually)
• Infrastructure: £60k-£260k per vehicle (£7.4M-£32M total depending on location)
• Grid connection delays: 9-12 months average (often longer in constrained areas)
• Charging downtime: 6-10 hours daily per vehicle
• Annual downtime cost: £984k-£1.85M (£8k-£15k per truck)

10-Year Total Cost of Ownership: £869,000-£1,100,000 per truck

These additional costs compound because every extra truck requires registration, insurance, maintenance, parking space, and critically—a driver in an already shortage-constrained market. The charging infrastructure costs scale non-linearly because depots need expensive grid upgrades to support megawatt-scale power demand. A 40-truck depot requires 2-6 MW of power—equivalent to a small industrial facility.

Hydrogen Fuel Cell: Preserving Operational Efficiency

Hydrogen lets operators avoid most of these compounding costs. The minimal payload loss (only 7% vs 19-23% for BEV) means manageable fleet scaling within normal business planning horizons:

• Fleet size: 108 trucks @ 25t payload each (+8% more vehicles)
• Drivers: 108 (+8 additional—within typical recruitment capacity)
• Annual wage bill: £4.16M (+£308k annually)
• Infrastructure: £25k-£50k per vehicle (£2.7M-£5.4M total—70-85% lower than BEV)
• Refueling time: 10-15 minutes (comparable to diesel)
• Annual downtime cost: £54k-£108k (£500-£1k per truck—95% lower than BEV)

10-Year Total Cost of Ownership: £915,000-£1,010,000 per truck

The infrastructure model is fundamentally different: hydrogen can be delivered by road tanker or produced on-site, avoiding the grid capacity bottleneck that plagues BEV deployments. This geographic flexibility is crucial for operators whose depots are in grid-constrained industrial estates—a common reality for logistics facilities built before the zero-emission transition was planned.

Hydrogen ICE: The SME-Accessible Option

For operators prioritizing lower upfront capital costs, hydrogen internal combustion engines offer the lowest entry barrier while maintaining near-diesel payload performance. This is particularly critical for the 95% of UK hauliers running fewer than 10 vehicles:

• Fleet size: 105 trucks @ 25.7t payload each (+5% more vehicles)
• Drivers: 105 (+5 additional)
• Annual wage bill: £4.04M (+£193k annually)
• Infrastructure: £25k-£50k per vehicle (£2.6M-£5.3M total)
• Refueling time: 15-20 minutes
• Upfront vehicle cost: 40-60% lower than BEV (£96k-£130k vs £160k-£200k)

10-Year Total Cost of Ownership: £960,000-£1,065,000 per truck

The battery electric “cost advantage” evaporates when you account for the full operational picture. Per 100-truck fleet, battery electric costs an additional £800k-£1.4M annually compared to hydrogen fuel cell when fleet scaling, driver costs, infrastructure, and downtime are properly accounted for. This isn’t a rounding error—it’s the difference between business viability and market exit for many operators.

The Human Element: Driver Shortage Magnified

The UK road haulage industry already faces a structural workforce crisis: declining numbers, an aging cohort, and a training pipeline not fit for purpose. The payload penalty doesn’t just drive up TCO—it makes the entire zero-emission transition unworkable for many fleet owners by amplifying driver demand beyond available supply.

Battery electric fleets, because they require 15–25% more drivers due to payload penalties, would force unprecedented wage inflation and make longstanding gaps simply unfillable. Every 10% driver shortage historically correlates with 3-5% wage pressure. A battery electric transition creating 115,000 additional unfillable positions would intensify competition for the remaining driver pool, potentially pushing average wages from £38.5k to £45k-£55k.

This 20-40% wage increase would add £96,000-£250,000 to 10-year TCO per truck—completely erasing any battery electric cost advantage.

By contrast, hydrogen fleets’ lower scaling factor (only 5-8% more vehicles needed) keeps workforce needs within plausible reach, especially for SMEs who compete for drivers against larger operators. Hydrogen’s lower driver requirement preserves the available workforce pool, reduces wage pressure, and maintains TCO economics.

Trial Evidence: What Real Operations Reveal

Real-world trials from the UK’s BETT programme (DAF, Volvo) and European hydrogen deployments (Mercedes GenH2, Scania) provide operational evidence that confirms what fleet managers experience daily. These aren’t theoretical projections—they’re actual performance data from trucks operating in commercial logistics networks.

Battery Electric: Urban Excellence, Long-Haul Limitations

The DAF BETT Trial (20 trucks, 287,000 km, 18 months) revealed that BEVs excel in predictable urban environments but face significant constraints under real-world payload and weather conditions:

• Range: 270 km average (close to 250 km nominal under optimal conditions)
• Winter penalty: 30% range reduction in cold weather
• Full payload impact: 30% higher energy consumption on urban delivery routes
• Energy consumption: 0.9-1.2 kWh/km (highly variable depending on load, terrain, temperature)
• Regenerative braking: Recovered up to 32% of energy (beneficial in stop-start urban use)
• Driver feedback: High satisfaction for acceleration and quietness; moderate concerns about range anxiety on longer routes

The ICCT European Study (91 BEV trucks across multiple operators) uncovered a critical operational reality: operators systematically oversize batteries to handle worst-case scenarios, carrying significant unused capacity most of the time:

• Actual ranges: 11-19% higher than advertised under optimal conditions
• Battery utilization: Average depth of discharge only 44%
• Critical finding: Operators spec batteries for winter + full payload + contingency, meaning they carry 56% unused battery weight most of the time
• Economic impact: Paying for and hauling excess battery capacity without proportional operational benefit

Current UK deployment stands at approximately 500-600 battery electric HGVs, operating primarily on short-haul, predictable urban routes with depot charging. Long-haul and multi-stop operations remain challenging.

Hydrogen: Production-Ready, Infrastructure-Limited

The Mercedes GenH2 Trials (5 trucks, 225,000+ km, 12+ months) demonstrate that hydrogen fuel cell technology has achieved production readiness with major logistics operators:

• Customer operators: Amazon, Air Products, Holcim, INEOS, Wiedmann & Winz
• Payload performance: 25 tonnes at 40t GCW (93% of diesel baseline)
• Range: 1,000+ km achieved consistently across all operating conditions
• Refueling: 10-15 minutes average (285 successful events, zero major failures)
• Hydrogen consumption: 5.6-8.0 kg/100km (varies by application, load, terrain)
• Operator feedback: “Just like a diesel truck, without local CO₂ emissions”
• Reliability: Successfully integrated into regular commercial logistics operations

Key finding: Hydrogen fuel cell technology is production-ready and operationally proven. The primary barrier to widespread adoption is infrastructure availability, not vehicle performance or reliability.

Infrastructure: The Geographic and Economic Divide

Infrastructure requirements reveal fundamentally different deployment models—and cost structures—between battery electric and hydrogen pathways. The differences aren’t just about pounds spent; they’re about geographic constraints, deployment timelines, and operational flexibility.

Battery Electric: Grid-Dependent and Geographically Constrained

BEV infrastructure is fundamentally constrained by local grid capacity—a factor many operators discover only after committing to vehicle purchases:

• Depot charging hardware: £15k-£25k per vehicle
• Grid connection costs: £60k-£260k per depot (enormous geographic variation—some sites cannot be connected at any cost)
• Lead time: 9-12 months average (often 18+ months in grid-constrained areas)
• Power requirement: 2-6 MW for a 40-truck depot (equivalent to a small industrial facility)
• Critical constraint: Many industrial estates cannot support MW-scale power demand without extensive distribution network upgrades
• Public charging: Less than 3% of UK charging infrastructure is suitable for HGVs (limited power, insufficient space, incompatible with operational scheduling)

The grid connection bottleneck is particularly acute because distribution network operators (DNOs) don’t publish capacity availability data by location. Operators can’t know if their site is viable until they undergo expensive, time-consuming assessments—often discovering unavoidable constraints after vehicle commitments are made.

Hydrogen: Geographic Flexibility and Lower Per-Vehicle Costs

Hydrogen infrastructure offers fundamentally different economics and deployment flexibility:

• Station equipment (20-truck depot): £610k-£1,020k total installation
• Per-vehicle cost (amortized): £30-£50k per truck (50-85% lower than BEV)
• Lead time: 3-6 months (established planning and permitting process)
• Geographic flexibility: Can be deployed anywhere with road access—not dependent on grid capacity
• Delivery model: Hydrogen can be road-delivered or produced on-site, avoiding grid bottleneck entirely
• Strategic network: 12-13 corridor stations would cover approximately 80% of UK HGV traffic
• Current status: Fewer than 10 stations in UK (versus 250+ in Germany)

Infrastructure cost per vehicle: Hydrogen is 50-85% lower than battery electric, with superior geographic deployment flexibility.

Systemic Impacts: Why This Is More Than a Fleet Issue

TCO impacts extend far beyond individual fleet balance sheets. The payload penalty creates systemic costs that ripple through society: more trucks mean more congestion, more infrastructure strain, more driver demand in an already-constrained market, and ultimately higher costs socialized across the economy. When we account for these externalities, the hydrogen advantage becomes even more pronounced.

In other words: for every 100 battery trucks instead of hydrogen, society pays on average £1.1–3.6 million more every year in visible and hidden costs. Scale this to the UK’s 500,000-truck fleet and the systemic cost difference becomes a matter of national economic competitiveness.

Context Matters: The Right Technology for the Right Route

There’s no “winner takes all” technology in heavy goods transport. Battery electric excels for urban, depot-based work with light/medium payload and frequent charging opportunities. Hydrogen dominates where ranges are long, payload is king, or refueling flexibility is business-critical. Matching technology to use-case is how operators—and the UK—secure low-carbon freight affordably.

Battery Electric Sweet Spot

• Urban/suburban delivery: 130-200 mile daily routes with predictable scheduling
• Regular depot returns: Overnight charging capability
• Existing grid capacity: Sites with available power and short connection lead times
• Light/moderate payloads: Volumetric rather than weight-limited cargo
• Examples: Last-mile delivery, urban distribution, shuttle services, retail logistics

Hydrogen Sweet Spot

• Long-haul operations: 300+ mile daily operations without guaranteed depot return
• Multi-day trips: Extended routes requiring rapid mid-journey refueling
• Heavy payloads: Weight-limited cargo (aggregates, steel, construction materials, bulk goods)
• Specialized operations: Temperature-controlled, hazmat, tankers requiring maximum payload
• SME operators: Capital-constrained small fleets needing lower entry costs
• Grid-constrained locations: Industrial estates without available electrical capacity
• Examples: Regional distribution, construction, intermodal, international haulage, specialized freight

Trying to force all haulage into a one-technology box risks creating gridlock, economic inefficiency, and a failed decarbonization strategy. The UK needs both technologies deployed strategically according to operational requirements, not a one-size-fits-all government mandate.

What the UK Needs to Do—Now

If policy gets it wrong—by relying on misleading cost-per-truck arithmetic and missing fleet-level realities—small firms will be priced out, driver shortages will grow worse, and grid infrastructure will become a single point of failure for the entire transition. Fleet operators don’t need generic encouragement; they need pragmatic, evidence-based reforms:

Immediate Priorities (2025-2026)

1. Weight Allowance Reform

• Increase zero-emission weight allowance from 2 tonnes to 4-5 tonnes
• Or implement technology-specific allowances that reflect actual payload penalties (4t for BEV, 2t for hydrogen)
• Enhanced support for double-deck vehicles operating on specific routes
• Coordinate with EU to maintain cross-border compatibility

2. Strategic Hydrogen Corridor Deployment

• Fund 5-8 initial stations on critical freight corridors: M1 (Leicester, Nottingham, Leeds), M25 (London gateway), M4 (Reading, Bristol), key ports (Dover, Southampton, Felixstowe)
• Public investment: £15-32M (£2-4M per station)
• Timeline: 18-24 months to operational deployment
• Private sector partnership model to leverage commercial investment

3. Grid Capacity Mapping and Prioritization

• Require DNOs to publish capacity availability data by industrial estate
• Identify and prioritize grid reinforcement investments for freight-critical locations
• Cost: £200-300k for comprehensive UK mapping study
• Transparency enables operators to make informed site and technology decisions

4. SME Support Mechanisms (Technology-Neutral)

• Vehicle grants: 20-30% of zero-emission cost premium above diesel baseline
• Infrastructure co-funding: 40-50% of depot charging or hydrogen station costs
• Low-cost financing with residual value guarantees to reduce risk
• Technology-neutral eligibility: Operator choice between BEV and hydrogen based on operational fit
• Tailored support for fleets under 25 vehicles (95% of UK operators)

5. Workforce Pipeline Restoration

• Restore and expand HGV driver training funding: target 5,000-10,000 new drivers annually
• Zero-emission technician training programs at regional colleges
• Apprenticeship support for both drivers and maintenance technicians
• Critical recognition: No trucks move without qualified drivers and technicians

Conclusion: Beyond the Purchase Price Myth

The zero-emission HGV transition is not a simple technology substitution. It’s a complex transformation affecting fleet composition, workforce requirements, infrastructure investments, operational models, and systemic costs that ripple through the entire economy.

Focusing on vehicle purchase price alone is like navigating by looking only at the speedometer while ignoring the map, the fuel gauge, and the cliff ahead.

The payload penalty from battery weight creates cascading consequences that fundamentally alter the economics:

• 15-25% more vehicles needed to move the same freight
• 15-25% more drivers required, exacerbating an acute shortage and driving wage inflation
• Infrastructure costs 3-8x higher per vehicle, with geographic constraints limiting deployment
• Greater operational downtime reducing effective fleet utilization
• Increased congestion and societal costs that burden the entire economy

When all costs are properly accounted for—not just vehicle purchase prices—hydrogen fuel cell and hydrogen ICE deliver competitive or superior total cost of ownership while preserving the operational effectiveness that UK logistics depends upon.

For the UK to achieve its legally binding 2035 (vehicles under 26 tonnes) and 2040 (all weights) zero-emission targets without crippling the logistics sector that moves £1.3 trillion of goods annually, we need:

• Technology diversity: BEV and hydrogen, not either/or mandates
• Use-case specific deployment: Match technology to operational requirements
• SME accessibility: Policies that preserve competitive diversity, not just support large fleets
• Workforce reality: Acknowledge driver shortage as binding constraint on transition pace
• Infrastructure coordination: Public investment in both charging and hydrogen networks
• Technology-neutral policy: Support based on emissions outcomes, not technology mandates

The choice isn’t “hydrogen or double the trucks.” But without hydrogen as a viable, supported pathway for heavy payload and long-haul operations, we’ll end up with exactly that: twice the trucks, twice the drivers we can’t find, twice the congestion on already-strained roads—and a decarbonization strategy that collapses under its own weight before achieving its climate goals.

The evidence is clear. The operational data is compelling. The question now is whether policymakers will look beyond purchase price headlines to build a transition strategy that actually works for the operators, workers, and communities that depend on functional freight logistics.

About the Author

Tim Harper is a serial technology entrepreneur and board advisor. He provides independent market analysis and investment research for emerging energy technologies through timharper.net.

Zero-Emission HGV TCO Data Sources & Methodology

This analysis draws on real-world trial data from the Battery Electric Truck Trial (BETT) programme, Mercedes GenH2 customer trials, ICCT European studies, UK Office for National Statistics driver market data, and comprehensive TCO modeling incorporating direct and indirect operational costs. All data sources are cited and available for peer review.

For access to underlying datasets, detailed TCO calculation methodologies, regional analysis, or to contribute operational evidence from your fleet, contact via timharper.net.